CoBOL and Contracting (new thread)
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From: klshafer on 5 Aug 2008 19:29 All - I'm not sure if I fully understand the distinction between OT threads within the group and OT posts within a thread, so to play on the safer side, I thought I'd transpose the CoBOL and Contracting morph into a separate thread here, not knowing if there is sufficient interest to sustain it, but we never really do anyway, do we... Since for the time being what is of interest to me is staying with CoBOL in my contracting, I'm leaving the subject line without the OT, as it does involve contracting confined to the CoBOL universe. These questions come to mind (with apologies to our international brethren here, for this is mostly a U.S.-centric post)- 1. What geographic "pockets" of CoBOL persist in the face of marketshare/mindshare decline? My impression, based on the most superficial of anecdotal evidence, is that it is in two places in the U.S. - the northeast corridor, from Richmond/DC to Boston, and the Great Lakes area (maybe as far south as Louisville/Cincinnati). More on this later... 2. What application domain "pockets" persist? Limited to financials / banking / insurance? Weren't they always pre-eminent? The decline of CoBOL in MRP and MRP II systems could probably be attributed to the ascendance of the ERP systems and the decline of manufacturing in general? 3. Do you think that the relative proportion of permanent vs. contractor status has changed significantly in the last ten years or so? Does the future of CoBOL exist more in contracting now than in permanent employment? 4. For those of us to stay sufficiently healthy, as we age, will the rate of employment attrition (due to retirement and death) exceed the rate of language replacement, so that although total numbers decline, the total numbers of CoBOL service providers decline faster than the demand? (I saw an article in the Indianapolis _Star_ that indicates such a thing will happen in certain key occupations.) OK -- as I was typing this the idea occurred to me to do an informal poll with DICE, state by state, and see what the job posts are for CoBOL, with no other keywords. A rough measure, but it will give us an idea. Can also get counts for employee/contractor, though some posts will contain references to both. CoBOL - no restrictions - 968 CoBOL - fulltime employee - 492 CoBOL - contractor (all kinds, including contract-to-hire) - 552 By state - (without regard to permanent fulltime vs. contractor) Alabama - 2 Alaska - 1 Arizona - 18 Arkansas - 9 California - 88 Colorado - 20 Connecticut - 49 Delaware - 7 Washington, DC - 10 Florida - 51 Georgia - 29 Hawaii - 0 Idaho - 1 Illinois - 57 Indiana - 10 Iowa - 12 Kansas - 4 Kentucky - 6 Louisiana - 2 Maine - 5 Maryland - 21 Massachusetts -12 Michigan - 22 Minnesota - 38 Mississippi - 2 Missouri - 49 Montana - 1 Nebraska - 9 Nevada - 0 New Hampshire - 0 New Jersey - 59 New Mexico - 0 New York - 67 North Carolina - 23 North Dakota - 0 Ohio - 49 Oklahoma - 5 Oregon - 11 Pennsylvania - 38 Rhode Island - 1 South Carolina - 37 South Dakota - 0 Tennessee - 14 Texas - 51 Utah - 2 Vermont - 0 Virginia - 31 Washington - 10 West Virginia - 0 Wisconsin - 29 Wyoming - 1 A few surprises here, but not too much. The strength in North and South Carolina for example, and Minnesota, which I did not expect. So we should modify the Northeast Corridor to be Northeast/Atlantic Coast, and point out that indeed, Minnesota falls within the reach of the Great Lakes. And the Republic of Texas is a pocket unto itself, is it not? ;-) Ken
From: Robert on 5 Aug 2008 23:57 On Tue, 5 Aug 2008 16:29:31 -0700 (PDT), "klshafer(a)att.net" <klshafer(a)att.net> wrote: >All - > >I'm not sure if I fully understand the distinction between OT threads >within the group and OT posts within a thread, so to play on the safer >side, I thought I'd transpose the CoBOL and Contracting morph into a >separate thread here, not knowing if there is sufficient interest to >sustain it, but we never really do anyway, do we... > >Since for the time being what is of interest to me is staying with >CoBOL in my contracting, I'm leaving the subject line without the OT, >as it does involve contracting confined to the CoBOL universe. > >These questions come to mind (with apologies to our international >brethren here, for this is mostly a U.S.-centric post)- > >1. What geographic "pockets" of CoBOL persist in the face of >marketshare/mindshare decline? My impression, based on the most >superficial of anecdotal evidence, is that it is in two places in the >U.S. - the northeast corridor, from Richmond/DC to Boston, and the >Great Lakes area (maybe as far south as Louisville/Cincinnati). More >on this later... Eastern half of the US, with emphasis on Chicago, Dallas, NY/NJ, Atlanta. Be wary of jobs in small cities, because the client company is likely to be a technical backwater having employees terrified of losing the only programming job in town. They see contractors as threats. In such places, an in person interview with *workers*, not managers, is a must. You especially want to meet the guy who's been there 20+ years. If he won't talk to you, pass. >2. What application domain "pockets" persist? Limited to financials / >banking / insurance? Weren't they always pre-eminent? The decline of >CoBOL in MRP and MRP II systems could probably be attributed to the >ascendance of the ERP systems and the decline of manufacturing in >general? Telecom, pharma, medical claims, government, retail, banking/insurance. Another is OLD small companies that have always done Cobol (above), but you don't want to work at those places. There's not much in finance, which embraces leading edge technologies. >3. Do you think that the relative proportion of permanent vs. >contractor status has changed significantly in the last ten years or >so? Does the future of CoBOL exist more in contracting now than in >permanent employment? The most evident trend is toward outsourcing to India, predominantly maintenance, support and testing. I estimate 10-30% of Cobol jobs go to contractors; the largest percentage are still held by employees. >4. For those of us to stay sufficiently healthy, as we age, will the >rate of employment attrition (due to retirement and death) exceed the >rate of language replacement, so that although total numbers decline, >the total numbers of CoBOL service providers decline faster than the >demand? (I saw an article in the Indianapolis _Star_ that indicates >such a thing will happen in certain key occupations.) Most Cobol contractors I've worked with were aged 25-40; they were not old people. The foreigners first learned Java or C++, picked up Cobol later. SQL is a required adjunct skill on most Cobol jobs, the only exception being those OLD small companies. You overlooked asking about platform. It's 60-70% mainframe, 30-40% Unix, near zero on Windows. I may be biased because my specialty is Unix. The mainframe market seems to have a surplus of supply over demand. There is less competition on Unix. >OK -- as I was typing this the idea occurred to me to do an informal >poll with DICE, state by state, and see what the job posts are for >CoBOL, with no other keywords. A rough measure, but it will give us an >idea. Can also get counts for employee/contractor, though some posts >will contain references to both. > >CoBOL - no restrictions - 968 >CoBOL - fulltime employee - 492 >CoBOL - contractor (all kinds, including contract-to-hire) - 552 That's a reflection of DICE, not the market. >By state - (without regard to permanent fulltime vs. contractor) >Alabama - 2 >Alaska - 1 Indeed.com has better analytical tools (and better listings). Select Job Trends, search on Cobol, then combinations of keywords such as "cobol mainframe" and "cobol chicago". Use the relative graph. To compare two trends, put a comma between the keywords (undocumented feature). Try "cobol, plsql" for a shocker. Even worse "cobol, c#'. Note that Java shows signs of aging. Simplyhired.com has a similar Trend feature, plus a handy average salary tool that uses your search key. It looks like it might be the indeed database, but isn't. To see they're not the same, look at C#. >A few surprises here, but not too much. The strength in North and >South Carolina for example, and Minnesota, which I did not expect. >So we should modify the Northeast Corridor to be Northeast/Atlantic >Coast, and point out that indeed, Minnesota falls within the reach of >the Great Lakes. Check the Job Postings Per Capita graphic on indeed.com to see growing cities. Rank Metropolitian Area Job Postings Per 1000 People 1 (1) San Jose, CA 177 2 (2) Washington, DC 152 3 (4) Hartford, CT 141 4 (3) Milwaukee, WI 127 5 (10) Boston, MA 114 6 (11) Phoenix, AZ 106 7 (7) Austin, TX 106 8 (5) Richmond, VA 102 9 (8) Denver, CO 100 10 (13) Baltimore, MD 96 >And the Republic of Texas is a pocket unto itself, is it not? ;-) The big surprises to me are Washington DC, Austin and Boston. Growth is probably not useful for finding Cobol jobs. We're looking for Legacy companies.
From: Anonymous on 6 Aug 2008 12:29 In article <08d38d88-27f7-482d-bae8-1b0214aa31e6(a)y38g2000hsy.googlegroups.com>, klshafer(a)att.net <klshafer(a)att.net> wrote: [snip] >1. What geographic "pockets" of CoBOL persist in the face of >marketshare/mindshare decline? I relocated to the Baltimore/DC area over a decade ago and have managed to keep myself more-or-less working. >2. What application domain "pockets" persist? I've had contracts, here, in insurance, medical care and government. >3. Do you think that the relative proportion of permanent vs. >contractor status has changed significantly in the last ten years or >so? Haven't paid it much mind, myself. [snip] >4. For those of us to stay sufficiently healthy, as we age, will the >rate of employment attrition (due to retirement and death) exceed the >rate of language replacement, so that although total numbers decline, >the total numbers of CoBOL service providers decline faster than the >demand? Could be. If I were able to predict the future I'd make a living working the stockmarkets and keep coding for fun. DD
From: klshafer on 6 Aug 2008 13:45 On Aug 5, 11:57 pm, Robert <n...(a)e.mail> wrote: > On Tue, 5 Aug 2008 16:29:31 -0700 (PDT), "klsha...(a)att.net" <klsha...(a)att..net> wrote: > >All - > > [snip] > > >1. What geographic "pockets" of CoBOL persist in the face of > >marketshare/mindshare decline? My impression, based on the most > >superficial of anecdotal evidence, is that it is in two places in the > >U.S. - the northeast corridor, from Richmond/DC to Boston, and the > >Great Lakes area (maybe as far south as Louisville/Cincinnati). More > >on this later... > > Eastern half of the US, with emphasis on Chicago, Dallas, NY/NJ, Atlanta. Agreed. For my interest, there's some sustained presence in the Great Lakes region. Weekend drive from Indianapolis, which is my criteria. I've already done my extended tour-of-duty on the East Coast (NYC, Washington, DC, Philadelphia, Richmond, Harrisburg). Did the Great Lakes tour back in the 80's: Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, Toronto (later). Now back at the Crossroads of America (Indiana). > > Be wary of jobs in small cities, because the client company is likely to be a technical > backwater having employees terrified of losing the only programming job in town. They see > contractors as threats. In such places, an in person interview with *workers*, not > managers, is a must. You especially want to meet the guy who's been there 20+ years. If he > won't talk to you, pass. We've come to call that phenomenon "contractor envy", and it is *very* real. Caused me a lot of trouble on a couple of projects. One way the fearful try to bait you is leading you into a discussion about money. (_Never_ discuss money details on a project - it is right up there on the same forbidden list of subjects as politics and religion.) Some are quite brazen: "How much money could *I* expect to make as a contractor?" or even more blatant: "Just how *much* money are they paying you?" The diplomatic way I've found to deflect this, while answering the question, is to provide them a formula: "Well, it's competitive with permanent salaries, calulated in the following way. I receive no benefits, no social security, no 401K match, no vacation, no training, none of that, and altogether, that's worth about 30-35% above your base salary. And then there's the risk premium. Generally, that's about 15%, which I have found to be *barely* adequate to cover my downtime when I am not billable at all. So here's what you do - take *your* salary, which I am sure is competitive, multiply by 1.5, divide by 2000 hours a year, and that is your hourly rate." And I agree wholeheartedly with your observation about interviewing with the old-timers. Now that I think about it, the times they were included in the vetting process, I had much better luck getting the assignment. > > >2. What application domain "pockets" persist? Limited to financials / > >banking / insurance? Weren't they always pre-eminent? The decline of > >CoBOL in MRP and MRP II systems could probably be attributed to the > >ascendance of the ERP systems and the decline of manufacturing in > >general? > > Telecom, pharma, medical claims, government, retail, banking/insurance. Another is OLD > small companies that have always done Cobol (above), but you don't want to work at those > places. There's not much in finance, which embraces leading edge technologies. Pretty much substantiates my belief. Thanks. > > >3. Do you think that the relative proportion of permanent vs. > >contractor status has changed significantly in the last ten years or > >so? Does the future of CoBOL exist more in contracting now than in > >permanent employment? > > The most evident trend is toward outsourcing to India, predominantly maintenance, support > and testing. I estimate 10-30% of Cobol jobs go to contractors; the largest percentage are > still held by employees. I wonder - is there a niche market for a "near shore" :-) maintenance service bureau? I do think at least *some* of the bloom is off the offshoring rose. My evidence for this is sparse, and only anecdotal, but from sources I consider very reliable. Now that rates have been "capped" domestically, I think it is more feasible than several years ago. > > >4. For those of us to stay sufficiently healthy, as we age, will the > >rate of employment attrition (due to retirement and death) exceed the > >rate of language replacement, so that although total numbers decline, > >the total numbers of CoBOL service providers decline faster than the > >demand? (I saw an article in the Indianapolis _Star_ that indicates > >such a thing will happen in certain key occupations.) > > Most Cobol contractors I've worked with were aged 25-40; they were not old people. > The foreigners first learned Java or C++, picked up Cobol later. The natives where I work are all in their late-forties, fifties, and nearly-sixties. The H1-B's are mostly in their thirties and forties, with just a couple in their twenties. > > SQL is a required adjunct skill on most Cobol jobs, the only exception being those OLD > small companies. > > You overlooked asking about platform. It's 60-70% mainframe, 30-40% Unix, near zero on > Windows. I may be biased because my specialty is Unix. The mainframe market seems to have > a surplus of supply over demand. There is less competition on Unix. Yes, I did overlook OS and "environment". Interesting what you say about Unix, and the relative comparision of supply/demand with mainframe. I wonder if CoBOL, being an ANSI standard language, and Unix, being open-source, are being forced into a shotgun marriage of convenience to compete with the proprietary likes of MS and C#? > > >OK -- as I was typing this the idea occurred to me to do an informal > >poll with DICE, state by state, and see what the job posts are for > >CoBOL, with no other keywords. A rough measure, but it will give us an > >idea. Can also get counts for employee/contractor, though some posts > >will contain references to both. > > >CoBOL - no restrictions - 968 > >CoBOL - fulltime employee - 492 > >CoBOL - contractor (all kinds, including contract-to-hire) - 552 > > That's a reflection of DICE, not the market. Are you saying that DICE has a "bias" toward contracting? That would be good to keep in mind, if it is true. > > >By state - (without regard to permanent fulltime vs. contractor) > >Alabama - 2 > >Alaska - 1 > > Indeed.com has better analytical tools (and better listings). Select Job Trends, search on > Cobol, then combinations of keywords such as "cobol mainframe" and "cobol chicago". Use > the relative graph. To compare two trends, put a comma between the keywords (undocumented > feature). Try "cobol, plsql" for a shocker. Even worse "cobol, c#'. Note that Java shows > signs of aging. Wow. I took a look at indeed.com and try the Trends. Very, very interesting. Also, quite curious that I stumbled upon a significant CoBOL listing, just browsing, at the University of Chicago Medical Center. That's quite a good school, and *that* is an understatement. That they are still using CoBOL must say *something*. > > Simplyhired.com has a similar Trend feature, plus a handy average salary tool that uses > your search key. It looks like it might be the indeed database, but isn't.. To see they're > not the same, look at C#. > > >A few surprises here, but not too much. The strength in North and > >South Carolina for example, and Minnesota, which I did not expect. > >So we should modify the Northeast Corridor to be Northeast/Atlantic > >Coast, and point out that indeed, Minnesota falls within the reach of > >the Great Lakes. > > Check the Job Postings Per Capita graphic on indeed.com to see growing cities. > > Rank Metropolitian Area Job Postings Per 1000 People > 1 (1) San Jose, CA 177 > 2 (2) Washington, DC 152 > 3 (4) Hartford, CT 141 > 4 (3) Milwaukee, WI 127 > 5 (10) Boston, MA 114 > 6 (11) Phoenix, AZ 106 > 7 (7) Austin, TX 106 > 8 (5) Richmond, VA 102 > 9 (8) Denver, CO 100 > 10 (13) Baltimore, MD 96 > > >And the Republic of Texas is a pocket unto itself, is it not? ;-) > > The big surprises to me are Washington DC, Austin and Boston. Milwaukee is a bit of a surprise to me as well. A Great Lakes city I've not yet worked in. I suppose Washington, DC is on there because Uncle Sam just keeps getting bigger and bigger, either directly, or through his many private contracting company extgensions. > > Growth is probably not useful for finding Cobol jobs. We're looking for Legacy companies. Agreed. That will be somewhat contrarian. Those of us who don't mind the gamey flavor of catfish don't mind being called "bottom feeders." I don't anyway. Can make for a tasty meal. :-) ken
From: klshafer on 6 Aug 2008 13:53
On Aug 6, 12:29 pm, docdw...(a)panix.com () wrote: > In article <08d38d88-27f7-482d-bae8-1b0214aa3...(a)y38g2000hsy.googlegroups..com>, > > klsha...(a)att.net <klsha...(a)att.net> wrote: > > [snip] > > >1. What geographic "pockets" of CoBOL persist in the face of > >marketshare/mindshare decline? > > I relocated to the Baltimore/DC area over a decade ago and have managed to > keep myself more-or-less working. Have you managed to avoid the infamous IRS rewrite project? That's in Baltimore, isn't it? Yes, I liked the East Coast. I loved taking Amtrak for weekend excursions. DC to Philly, DC to NYC, DC to Richmond. > > >2. What application domain "pockets" persist? > > I've had contracts, here, in insurance, medical care and government. NYC and DC are only a few hours apart, but seemed like completely different worlds to me. DC is extremely power-centric; NYC is extremely money-centric. There _is_ a bit of a distinction between the two. But both were very, very high-powered to me. All in all, their environments are very, very stimulating, but tiring, for me. One of the reasons I'm back in the midwest now. > > >3. Do you think that the relative proportion of permanent vs. > >contractor status has changed significantly in the last ten years or > >so? > > Haven't paid it much mind, myself. My conjecture is that CoBOL, to the extent that it survives, will be increasingly paired with contracting, and less with permanent employees. But that is only a conjecture, with little to support it. > > [snip] > > >4. For those of us to stay sufficiently healthy, as we age, will the > >rate of employment attrition (due to retirement and death) exceed the > >rate of language replacement, so that although total numbers decline, > >the total numbers of CoBOL service providers decline faster than the > >demand? > > Could be. If I were able to predict the future I'd make a living working > the stockmarkets and keep coding for fun. Yeah, well if *I* could predict the future I'd know what the numbers to the Illinois lottery were for this today and I wouldn't be posting here on CLC :-) ... ken |