OT: list of glaciers that are growing. Or not. (Was OT: Thanksgiving)
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From: tlmfru on 4 Jan 2008 14:24 (Approx 3,000 words) SUMMARY. A list of glaciers alleged to be growing in 2007 is posted at http://www.iceagenow.com/List_of_Expanding_Glaciers.htm I have checked into most of them and must conclude that this post is a fine example of "be skeptical about what you read on the Internet". It appears that somebody Google'd with the key words "glaciers" and "advancing" and then mashed the results together without really reading what was found. 1. In several cases, the word "advancing" was taken to be synonymous with "growing", which isn't necessarily the case. Advancing often means "flowing" which all glaciers that aren't landlocked do. Example: Greenland. 2. Several of the examples given appear to be just plain wrong. Example: Briksdalsbreen in Norway. 3. There are several glaciers that are indeed growing, particularly in Norway. But in every case there are special circumstances that account for them; indeed as the list for Norway states "heavier winter precipitation set in". 4. There are glaciers that have been alternating between growing and shrinking during recorded times; some that happen to be increasing just now are listed as growing. Example: Franz Joseph in New Zealand. Again, in all cases, there are special circumstances. 5. Intriguing is Pio XI in Chile. Between 1945 and 1976 its front advanced by 5 km, indicating terrific growth. 6. The Big Three: the Arctic ice cover, the Greenland icecap, and the Antarctic icecap. - Arctic: the ice is melting away furiously. This is beyond debate. - Greenland and Antarctic: the rate of melting and calving at their fringes is enormous and, again, beyond debate. What may seem surprising at first glance is that the inland areas, far from the sea and at high altitudes, are actually thickening slowly, at the rate of a few centimeters per year. But it makes sense: glaciation is dependent on the rate of precipitation or, where precipitation is absent, on the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. The colder it is, the less of either. So if the average air temperature has increased precipitation and moisture content will have increased. I haven't seen any calculations on the total net effect - whether the melting or the thickening is predominating. CONCLUSION: none of the examples listed, individually or en masse, represent evidence that the phenomenon of global warming is NOT happening. I found it disappointing that many of the GW-naysayer sites seemed to be more interested in jeering and sneering than discussion. Some of them went so far as to lower the level of debate to political mudslinging: viz., "GW-believing liberals will be dismayed" Surely name-calling is useless here if it's useless anywhere. Details follow. >http://www.iceagenow.com/List_of_Expanding_Glaciers.htm > >List of Expanding Glaciers >Updated 6 October 2007 > > Reference "A": Glacier Monitoring Service (www.geo.unizh.ch/wgms/): a long-term project to monitor and record the mass increases or decreases of glaciers. 96 are listed: for those with data for both years, - 4 increased in both years; - 6 increased in 2004 & decreased in 2005; - 7 decreased in 2004 & increased in 2005; - 55 decreased in both years. This is the latest info that I can find. >Here's a (partial) list of the specific glaciers that are growing: > >NORWAY > �lfotbreen Glacier (A: shrank in 2004, grew in 2005) > Briksdalsbreen Glacier >The face of the Briksdal glacier, an off-shoot of the largest glacier in Norway and >mainland Europe, is growing by an average 7.2 inches (18 centimeters) per day. (From >the Norwegian daily Bergens Tidende.) See http://envisense.org/glacsweb/: a most impressive series of photos showing how the glacier has shrunk drastically between 2001-2007. All the photos show, by the light area on the rocks, how big the glacier used to be. > Nigardsbreen Glacier (A: shrank in 2004, grew in 2005) > Hardangerj�kulen Glacier (A: grew in 2004, shrank in 2005) > Hansebreen Glacier (A: shrank in 2004) > Jostefonn Glacier (Couldn't find any info) > Engabreen glacier (The Engabreen glacier is the second largest glacier in Norway. It >is a part (a glacial tongue) of the Svartisen glacier, which has steadily increased in mass >since the 1960s when heavier winter precipitation set in.) (A: grew in 2004 & 2005); > >Norway's glaciers growing at record pace. See http://www.sepp.org/controv/afp.html (Couldn't find the particular article). It should be noted that (A) lists 20 glaciers in Norway; 13 of which decreased in both years. > >CANADA > Helm Glacier (A: decreased in 2004) > Place Glacier (A: decreased in 2004); http://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2007AM/finalprogram/abstract_127930.htm "Most alpine glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere reached their maximum extent of the Holocene between AD 1600 and 1850. Since the late 1800s, however, glaciers have thinned and retreated, mainly due to atmospheric warming. Glacier retreat in western Canada and other regions is exposing fossil tree stumps, soils, and plant detritus that, until recently, were beneath tens to hundreds of metres of ice. Dating of these fossils indicates that many of these glaciers are smaller today than they have been at any time in the past 7000 years. This evidence, in turn, suggests that glacier recession in the twentieth century is unprecedented during the past several millennia and that glaciers in western Canada have reached minimum extents only 150 years after they achieved their maximum Holocene extent.." >FRANCE > Mt. Blanc http:// www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/06/26/mont-blanc-glaciers-refuse- to-shrink/ - Glaciers on Mont Blanc have not significantly changed (shrunk or grown) during the period 1900-2005 >ECUADOR > Antizana 15 Alpha Glacier (A: shrank in 2004 & 2005). http://www.bioone.org/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1639%2F0044- 7447(2000)029%5B0416%3AGEITTA%5D2.0.CO%3B2&ct=1 "Mass balance has been continuously monitored on Chacaltaya Glacier (16�S, Cordillera Real, Bolivia) since 1991, and on the Antizana Glacier 15 (0�, Ecuador) since 1995. In ablation areas, mass balance has been surveyed on a monthly scale, providing interesting details about the seasonal pattern in 2 contrasting tropical environments. Intermittent information about ice recession exists in both regions for the last 4 decades. The data point to a clear acceleration in glacier decline during this decade; ablation rates have been 3-5 times higher than during the former decades. Fluctuations measured before on 3 glaciers in northern Peru, allow the assumption that the rate at which the glaciers retreated in the tropical Andes increased in the late 1970s. The present situation is particularly dramatic for the small-sized glaciers (< 1 km sq) and many such as Chacaltaya, could disappear in the next 10 years. As evidenced by the data collected, ablation increases significantly during the warm phases of ENSO (El Ni�o) and decreases during the cold phases (La Ni�a). Warm events becoming more frequent and intense since the late 1970s, it can be assumed that they have played an important role in the recent glacier decline in the central Andes, together with the global warming". http://www.inamhi.gov.ec/Glaciares/YEAR_BALANCE/year_balance.htm Decreasing in mass 1995-1998, increasing 1999-2000, although the net mass is far below what it was in 1995. There are two glaciers on the mountain, Alpha and Beta. Alpha in mentioned as being on the "growing" list; what about Beta? >SWITZERLAND > Silvretta Glacier (A: grew in 2004, shrank in 2005) >KIRGHIZTAN > Abramov Listed in the literature as both Abramov and Abramova. http://www.lrz-muenchen.de/~a2901ad/webserver/webdata/english/research.html - a photo of the glacier. No caption but this does not look like a growing glacier. Unfortunately the links all lead to non-English documents. "The Influence of Glacier Retreat on Water Yield from High Mountain ... influence, Abramov Glacier in Kyrgyzstan and the highly. continental Glacier No. ... are 10 small glaciers and Abramov glacier with an area ... http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/0470858249.ch18 " - a suggestive title. But this is just an abstract of a paper so I couldn't read it. http://snowman.ihas.nagoya-u.ac.jp/Research/DebrisWS/abstracts/Glazirin.html - - last paragraph implies shrinking >RUSSIA > Maali Glacier (This glacier is surging.) (A: shrank in both 2004 & 2005). Couldn't find a "Maali" Glacier. The one I've listed is Maliy Aktru. > >GREENLAND >Greenland glacier advancing 7.2 miles per year! The BBC recently ran a documentary, >The Big Chill, saying that we could be on the verge of an ice age. Britain could be >heading towards an Alaskan-type climate within a decade, say scientists, because the >Gulf Stream is being gradually cut off. The Gulf Stream keeps temperatures unusually >high for such a northerly latitude. > >One of Greenland's largest glaciers has already doubled its rate of advance, moving >forward at the rate of 12 kilometers (7.2 miles) per year. To see a transcript of the >documentary, go to http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2003/bigchilltrans.shtml What the documentary actually says is that the rate of flow of the glacier at one point has increased to 12km per year. This is not the same as increasing in area or volume or mass. > >NEW ZEALAND >All 48 glaciers in the Southern Alps have grown during the past year. >The growth is at the head of the glaciers, high in the mountains, where they >gained more ice than they lost. Noticeable growth should be seen at the >foot of the Fox and Franz Josef glaciers within two to three years.(27 May 2003) > Fox, Franz Josef glaciers defy trend - New Zealand's two best-known > glaciers are still on the march - 31 Jan 07 - See Franz Josef Glacier http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Josef_Glacier "The glacier is currently 12 km long and terminates 19 km from the Tasman Sea. It exhibits a cyclic pattern of advance and retreat, driven by differences between the volume of meltwater at the foot of the glacier and volume of snowfall feeding the n�v�. Due to strong snowfall it is one of the few glaciers in New Zealand which is still growing as of 2007, while others, mostly on the eastern side of the Southern Alps, have been shrinking heavily, a process attributed to global warming. Having retreated several kilometres between the 1940s and 1980s, the glacier entered an advancing phase in 1984 and at times has advanced at the phenomenal (by glacial standards) rate of 70 cm a day. The flow rate is about 10 times that of typical glaciers. Over the longer term, the glacier has retreated since the last ice age, and it is believed that it extended into the sea some 10,000 to 15,000 years ago. This cyclic behaviour is well illustrated by a postage stamp issued in 1946, depicting the view from St James Anglican Church. The church was built in 1931, with a panoramic altar window to take advantage of its location. By 1954, the glacier had disappeared from view from the church, but it reappeared in 1997" >SOUTH AMERICA > - Argentina's Perito Moreno Glacier (the largest glacier in Patagonia) > is advancing at the rate of 7 feet per day. The 250 km� ice formation, > 30 km long, is one of 48 glaciers fed by the Southern Patagonian Ice > Field. This ice field, located in the Andes system shared with Chile, > is the world's third largest reserve of fresh water. > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perito_Moreno_Glacier "The Perito Moreno Glacier is one of only three Patagonian glaciers that are not retreating. The terminus of the Perito Moreno Glacier is 5 km wide, with an average height of 60 meters above the surface of the water, with a total ice depth of 170 meters. It advances at a speed of up to 2 m per day (around 700 m per year), although it loses mass at approximately the same rate, meaning that aside from small variations, its terminus has not advanced or receded in the past 90 years. At its deepest part, the glacier has a depth of approximately 700 m." > > - Chile's Pio XI Glacier (the largest glacier in the southern hemisphere) > is also growing. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Br�ggen_Glacier "Br�ggen Glacier, also known as P�o XI Glacier, is in southern Chile and is the largest western outflow from the Southern Patagonian Ice Field. Now about 64 km in length, it is one of the longest glacier in the southern hemisphere outside of Antarctica. Unlike most glaciers worldwide, it advanced significantly since 1945. From 1945 to 1976, Br�ggen surged 5 km across the Eyre Fjord, reaching the western shore by 1962 and cutting off Lake Greve from the sea. The glacier continued advancing both northward and southward in the fjord to near its present position before stabilizing. The growth covers a distance of more than 10 km north to south, adding nearly 60 square km of ice." It would be very interesting to find out what caused the glacier to go on such a tear! http://www.visitchile.com/eng/south-patagonia-torres-paine/destination.asp?i d=425 "Located in Bernardo O'Higgins National Park, Pio XI Glacier is another must-see place in the region. Pio XI is as big as Santiago, with a surface of 1265 squared kilometers, which grows 50 meters in height, length and density every day..." (what this actually means I have no idea). http://www.glaciologia.cl/pioxi.htm - in Portuguese or Spanish, unfortunately. However, reading the first paragraph by the "if only it were English" system appears to confirm the Wikipedia entry. > >UNITED STATES > - Colorado http://news.usti.net/home/news/cn/?/tw.environment/2/wed/ct/Uus- glaciers.RW73_EOQ.html "The 62-acre Arapaho Glacier west of Boulder has dropped 100 to 130 feet since 1960, according to CU reports quoted Tuesday in the Rocky Mountain News. The nearby Arikaree Glacier has also sunk some 66 feet since 1965. The reports are the first to document significant present-day declines in the state's Front Range glaciers, which are relatively small compared to other glaciers around the world." http://glaciers.research.pdx.edu/colorado.php "There are more than 135 permanent snow or ice bodies mapped in Colorado, but only 7 of these are larger than 0.1 km2. Colorado has 14 named glaciers - all in the Front Range, most significantly in Rocky Mountain National Park. The total area of all the mapped snow and ice bodies in Colorado is about 4.8 sq. km. Most of the glaciers and perennial ice patches in Colorado today are the tattered remnants of these small Little Ice Age glaciers". Lots of good photos showing the shrinking. > - Washington (Mount St. Helens, Mt. Rainier* and Mt. Shuckson) Mt. St. Helens: a small glacier appeared after the eruption of 1980, caused by changes to weather patterns. It is indeed growing at the moment. Mt. Rainier & Mt. Shuckson I didn't look into. > - California (Mount Shasta - Couldn't find anything that specifically mentioned changes. > - Montana http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/03/13/tech/main1391827.shtml "Dr. Daniel Fagre, a federal research scientist based at Glacier National Park in Montana, says that in 1850, the park had 150 glaciers. Today, because of global warming, there are only 27 left, with estimates that all the glaciers in the park will be gone by the year 2030" > - Alaska (Mt. McKinley and Hubbard). Hubbard is advancing at a great rate down the inlet. It's sensible to accept that it's growing. I couldn't find any reference to size changes on McKinley. >Washington's Nisqually Glacier is Growing http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Rainier/Glaciers/description_rainier_gla ciers.html " Nisqually Glacier advanced and retreated three times between 1965 and 1992. The most recent period of retreat occurred between 1985 and 1991 during which time the glacier thinned by 52 feet in the region immediately west of Glacier Vista. The retreat that has been occurring since the late 1980's may be slowing." >Himalayan Glaciers Not Shrinking >Glacial Experts Question Theory of Global Warming >15 Feb 07 - See Himalayan Glaciers Not Shrinking http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=512&Articl eID =5600&l=en "Kathmandu/Bangkok, 5 June 2007: ... countries Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan, India and China. The mountain range feeds nine perennial river systems in the region and constitutes a lifeline for nearly 1.3 billion people downstream. Himalayan glaciers are shrinking at an average of 10 to 60 m annually, with some retreating by 74 m a year. In China, glaciers have been retreating at a rate of 5.5 per cent in the last three decades. With current climate change projections two-thirds of China's glaciers are likely to disappear by 2050, and almost all would be gone by 2100. Significant changes were also seen in the Indian Himalaya, with the highest rate of glacial retreat found in the Bada Shigri Glacier and lowest in the Chhota Shigri Glacier in the Chenab River Basin, where glaciers are retreating by 6.8 to 29.8 m each year. In Bhutan, the Luggye Glacier retreated by 160 m yearly from 1988 to 1993 resulting in rapid growth of the Luggye Tso Lake. The Raphstreng Glacier retreated 35 m every year on average from 1984 to 1998 but from 1988 to 1993 the retreat rate almost doubled to 60 m per year. Glacier retreat has been accelerating in Nepal since the 1990s, with dramatic retreats recorded between 1994 and 1998 especially in the Dudh Koshi sub-basin where all of the glaciers studied have retreat by 10 to 59 m yearly. The Dudh Koshi sub-basin is the largest basin and most densely glaciated region in Nepal." |