From: Franc Zabkar on
My MPF3204AT Fujitsu 20GB HDD's Power On Time Count just triggered a
SMART warning after dropping below the threshold of 20.

The raw value is currently 43763894 seconds, ie 12156 hours.

OTOH my 120GB Seagate drive is currently at ...

Power On Hours Count 9 0 99 99 0000000005DDh (1501)

.... so its expected life appears to be somewhere between 150,100 and
75,050 hours.

Are these numbers realistic, ie has hard disc reliability really
improved that much? I don't think so.

The Fujitsu datasheet ...

http://www2.fcpa.fujitsu.com/sp_support/ext/desktop/datasheets/mpf3xxxat-datasheet.pdf

.... specifies the number of start/stop cycles as 40,000.

A log of SMART reports shows the following:

Start/Stop Count 4 16 98 98 000000000578h EC
Start/Stop Count 4 16 97 97 00000000057Dh EC

This suggests that each point represents about 468 starts, and a loss
of 84 points represents 39,340 start/stop cycles which roughly tallies
with the spec.

- Franc Zabkar
--
Please remove one 'i' from my address when replying by email.
From: Arno Wagner on
Previously Franc Zabkar <fzabkar(a)iinternode.on.net> wrote:
> My MPF3204AT Fujitsu 20GB HDD's Power On Time Count just triggered a
> SMART warning after dropping below the threshold of 20.

> The raw value is currently 43763894 seconds, ie 12156 hours.

> OTOH my 120GB Seagate drive is currently at ...

> Power On Hours Count 9 0 99 99 0000000005DDh (1501)

> ... so its expected life appears to be somewhere between 150,100 and
> 75,050 hours.

> Are these numbers realistic, ie has hard disc reliability really
> improved that much? I don't think so.

This is not reliability. This is component life under operation.
It has improved significantly due to better lubrication
material as has non-operating component life. Here also because
of the move to ceramic capacitors, that basically live forever,
while electrolytes die after 3-5 years or so, depending on
temperature and quality.

But, no, I would say the 7.5/15 years are probably still
longer than you can realistically expect. Typical component
life for industrial electronics is still around 5 years.
I guess this is just so that the range is large enough.
It should be an "old age" attribute anyways, not a "pre-fail."

> The Fujitsu datasheet ...

> http://www2.fcpa.fujitsu.com/sp_support/ext/desktop/datasheets/mpf3xxxat-datasheet.pdf

> ... specifies the number of start/stop cycles as 40,000.

> A log of SMART reports shows the following:

> Start/Stop Count 4 16 98 98 000000000578h EC
> Start/Stop Count 4 16 97 97 00000000057Dh EC

> This suggests that each point represents about 468 starts, and a loss
> of 84 points represents 39,340 start/stop cycles which roughly tallies
> with the spec.

Well, you should be prepared for your drive to become unreliable
in the not to far future. But these values are not hard. If you
have backup, you can continue to use them and may even get some
more years of reliable operation. And, realistically, that is not
too different from what a new deive gives you.

Arno
From: Rod Speed on
Franc Zabkar <fzabkar(a)iinternode.on.net> wrote:

> My MPF3204AT Fujitsu 20GB HDD's Power On Time Count just
> triggered a SMART warning after dropping below the threshold of 20.

> The raw value is currently 43763894 seconds, ie 12156 hours.

> OTOH my 120GB Seagate drive is currently at ...

> Power On Hours Count 9 0 99 99 0000000005DDh (1501)

> ... so its expected life appears to be somewhere between 150,100 and 75,050 hours.

> Are these numbers realistic,

Nope, but not for the reason you are going on about.

> ie has hard disc reliability really improved that much? I don't think so.

Fraid so.

> The Fujitsu datasheet ...

> http://www2.fcpa.fujitsu.com/sp_support/ext/desktop/datasheets/mpf3xxxat-datasheet.pdf

> ... specifies the number of start/stop cycles as 40,000.

> A log of SMART reports shows the following:

> Start/Stop Count 4 16 98 98 000000000578h EC
> Start/Stop Count 4 16 97 97 00000000057Dh EC

> This suggests that each point represents about 468 starts, and a loss of 84
> points represents 39,340 start/stop cycles which roughly tallies with the spec.

But that is a design value. There is no suggestion that the drive does deteriorate uniformly as the start/stop count
increases.


From: Simon on
Arno Wagner <me(a)privacy.net> wrote:
> Previously Franc Zabkar <fzabkar(a)iinternode.on.net> wrote:
>> My MPF3204AT Fujitsu 20GB HDD's Power On Time Count just triggered a
>> SMART warning after dropping below the threshold of 20.
>
>> The raw value is currently 43763894 seconds, ie 12156 hours.
>
>> OTOH my 120GB Seagate drive is currently at ...
>
>> Power On Hours Count 9 0 99 99 0000000005DDh (1501)
>
>> ... so its expected life appears to be somewhere between 150,100 and
>> 75,050 hours.
>
>> Are these numbers realistic, ie has hard disc reliability really
>> improved that much? I don't think so.
>
> This is not reliability. This is component life under operation.
> It has improved significantly due to better lubrication
> material as has non-operating component life. Here also because
> of the move to ceramic capacitors, that basically live forever,

> while electrolytes die after 3-5 years or so, depending on temperature and quality.

Fantasy.

> But, no, I would say the 7.5/15 years are probably still
> longer than you can realistically expect. Typical component
> life for industrial electronics is still around 5 years.

Like hell it is.

> I guess this is just so that the range is large enough.
> It should be an "old age" attribute anyways, not a "pre-fail."

>> The Fujitsu datasheet ...

>> http://www2.fcpa.fujitsu.com/sp_support/ext/desktop/datasheets/mpf3xxxat-datasheet.pdf
>
>> ... specifies the number of start/stop cycles as 40,000.
>
>> A log of SMART reports shows the following:
>
>> Start/Stop Count 4 16 98 98 000000000578h EC
>> Start/Stop Count 4 16 97 97 00000000057Dh EC
>
>> This suggests that each point represents about 468 starts, and a loss
>> of 84 points represents 39,340 start/stop cycles which roughly
>> tallies with the spec.

> Well, you should be prepared for your drive to become unreliable in the not to far future.

Mindlessly silly.

> But these values are not hard. If you have backup, you can continue
> to use them and may even get some more years of reliable operation.

Gets sillier by the minute.

> And, realistically, that is not too different from what a new deive gives you.

Even sillier.


From: Arno Wagner on
Previously Simon <192900(a)spam.com> wrote:
> Arno Wagner <me(a)privacy.net> wrote:
>> Previously Franc Zabkar <fzabkar(a)iinternode.on.net> wrote:
>>> My MPF3204AT Fujitsu 20GB HDD's Power On Time Count just triggered a
>>> SMART warning after dropping below the threshold of 20.
>>
>>> The raw value is currently 43763894 seconds, ie 12156 hours.
>>
>>> OTOH my 120GB Seagate drive is currently at ...
>>
>>> Power On Hours Count 9 0 99 99 0000000005DDh (1501)
>>
>>> ... so its expected life appears to be somewhere between 150,100 and
>>> 75,050 hours.
>>
>>> Are these numbers realistic, ie has hard disc reliability really
>>> improved that much? I don't think so.
>>
>> This is not reliability. This is component life under operation.
>> It has improved significantly due to better lubrication
>> material as has non-operating component life. Here also because
>> of the move to ceramic capacitors, that basically live forever,

>> while electrolytes die after 3-5 years or so, depending on temperature and quality.

> Fantasy.

Read a datasheet.

>> But, no, I would say the 7.5/15 years are probably still
>> longer than you can realistically expect. Typical component
>> life for industrial electronics is still around 5 years.

> Like hell it is.

Again, read a datasheet.

>> I guess this is just so that the range is large enough.
>> It should be an "old age" attribute anyways, not a "pre-fail."

>>> The Fujitsu datasheet ...

>>> http://www2.fcpa.fujitsu.com/sp_support/ext/desktop/datasheets/mpf3xxxat-datasheet.pdf
>>
>>> ... specifies the number of start/stop cycles as 40,000.
>>
>>> A log of SMART reports shows the following:
>>
>>> Start/Stop Count 4 16 98 98 000000000578h EC
>>> Start/Stop Count 4 16 97 97 00000000057Dh EC
>>
>>> This suggests that each point represents about 468 starts, and a loss
>>> of 84 points represents 39,340 start/stop cycles which roughly
>>> tallies with the spec.

>> Well, you should be prepared for your drive to become unreliable in the not to far future.

> Mindlessly silly.

And again, read a datasheet.

>> But these values are not hard. If you have backup, you can continue
>> to use them and may even get some more years of reliable operation.

> Gets sillier by the minute.

And get a clue about device live statistics.

>> And, realistically, that is not too different from what a new deive gives you.

> Even sillier.

You have no clue. On a guess I would say one of the usual clueless
bigmouths, hiding behind a new name, because nobody
listens anymore.

Arno