From: Andrew Haley on
Tom St Denis <tom(a)iahu.ca> wrote:
> On Sep 7, 12:39?pm, Andrew Haley <andre...(a)littlepinkcloud.invalid>
> wrote:

> > In 1991, [1] said
> >
> > "For most applications a modulus size of 1024 bits should achieve a
> > sufficient level of security for "tactical" secrets for the next ten
> > years. ?This is for long term secrecy purposes; for short term
> > authenticity purposes 512 bits might suffice in this century."
> >
> > Andrew.
> >
> > [1] Th. Beth, M. Frisch and G. Simmons, Public Key Cryptography: State
> > of the Art and Future Directions, LNCS 578, SpringerVerlag,1992

> From what I see the 512-bit factorization occurred around 2000. So
> that statement is fairly dead on. Even in the mid 90s when I was
> getting into cryptography it was fairly common place to be using AT
> LEAST 768-bit RSA keys. From what I understand, the QS and MPQS were
> the systems used originally, so any time estimates were likely based
> on those. A quick google suggests that the GNFS came around out of
> the SNFS in the early 90s.

They caught that too: "It is not unlikely that [NFS] is better than
the ppmpqs for factoring numbers in the 512 bit raange."

> Probably after that paper was written, so all in all, the estimates
> were scientific.

It's a fascinating read. Not only do they attempt to estimate
hardware improvement, they also think about future progress in
algorithms.

It's interesting to note that no-one at the time was prepared to push
out estimates beyond a decade. As for today, some people have been
saying we might have useful quantum computers in a couple of decades,
whereupon all bets are off anyway.

Andrew.
From: pubkeybreaker on
On Sep 8, 1:06 pm, Andrew Haley <andre...(a)littlepinkcloud.invalid>
wrote:
> Tom St Denis <t...(a)iahu.ca> wrote:


<snip>

> > > [1] Th. Beth, M. Frisch and G. Simmons, Public Key Cryptography: State
> > > of the Art and Future Directions, LNCS 578, SpringerVerlag,1992
> It's a fascinating read.  Not only do they attempt to estimate
> hardware improvement, they also think about future progress in
> algorithms.
>
> It's interesting to note that no-one at the time was prepared to push
> out estimates beyond a decade.  

You might want to check who was on the technical committee that made
the recommendations.......