From: RichA on
Contrast focusing mostly. Electronic shutters. Back lit sensors.
Mirror-less systems. Smaller systems, to a point. Possibly, electron-
multiplying sensors.
From: Ray Fischer on
RichA <rander3127(a)gmail.com> wrote:
>Contrast focusing mostly. Electronic shutters. Back lit sensors.
>Mirror-less systems. Smaller systems, to a point. Possibly, electron-
>multiplying sensors.

Since that is already the present it seems that you're just a tad late
in your (ahem) "predictions".

--
Ray Fischer
rfischer(a)sonic.net

From: SMS on
On 11/06/10 8:38 PM, RichA wrote:
> Contrast focusing mostly. Electronic shutters. Back lit sensors.
> Mirror-less systems. Smaller systems, to a point. Possibly, electron-
> multiplying sensors.

Uh, isn't nearly all of that already here? The problem is that contrast
focusing, smaller systems, and mirror-less systems give demonstrably
much poorer results than the phase focusing, larger systems, and
mirrored systems. Maybe you mean that the future is going to bring
systems where all those things work as well as the current alternatives.

You might think that it's a conspiracy--Canon and Nikon have a vested
interest in keeping P&S cameras significantly worse than D-SLRs, but
even the manufacturers with no D-SLR product line have been unable to
overcome the inherent limitations of contrast focusing, smaller bodies,
electronic shutters, and lack of mirrors. It's rather amusing to see how
they try to overcome these limitations, often by selling add-on
accessories. Great marketing since now they get to charge extra to naive
buyers.

Even CHDK, the freeware software for Canon P&S cameras that adds many
useful features of D-SLRs to P&S cameras is an attempt to overcome many
of the limitations of P&S cameras, which are caused by the items in your
list. CHDK is very useful, but it can't fix the problems with contrast
focusing, small sensors, etc.. I use it a lot when I don't want to carry
along my D-SLR and since I helped write the documentation for it, I like
to promote it, but I don't want anyone to think that is somehow turns
the P&S into a D-SLR in terms of capability.
From: Robert Coe on
On Fri, 11 Jun 2010 20:38:35 -0700 (PDT), RichA <rander3127(a)gmail.com> wrote:
: Contrast focusing mostly. Electronic shutters. Back lit sensors.
: Mirror-less systems. Smaller systems, to a point. Possibly, electron-
: multiplying sensors.

Better batteries. More use of plastic. Tighter integration with computers
(like cell phones have). More feature-rich photo editors from manufacturers.

Somewhat less likely: More comprehensive and accessible Exif data. Greater
commonality of RAW formats.

Bob
From: RichA on
On Jun 12, 9:12 am, SMS <scharf.ste...(a)geemail.com> wrote:
> On 11/06/10 8:38 PM, RichA wrote:
>
> > Contrast focusing mostly.  Electronic shutters.  Back lit sensors.
> > Mirror-less systems.  Smaller systems, to a point.  Possibly, electron-
> > multiplying sensors.
>
> Uh, isn't nearly all of that already here? The problem is that contrast
> focusing, smaller systems, and mirror-less systems give demonstrably
> much poorer results than the phase focusing, larger systems, and
> mirrored systems. Maybe you mean that the future is going to bring
> systems where all those things work as well as the current alternatives.
>
> You might think that it's a conspiracy--Canon and Nikon have a vested
> interest in keeping P&S cameras significantly worse than D-SLRs, but
> even the manufacturers with no D-SLR product line have been unable to
> overcome the inherent limitations of contrast focusing, smaller bodies,
> electronic shutters, and lack of mirrors. It's rather amusing to see how
> they try to overcome these limitations, often by selling add-on
> accessories. Great marketing since now they get to charge extra to naive
> buyers.

The same reason a Covette ZR1 clobbers most Ferraris on the straights
is the one that will prevent P&S's from ever matching DSLRs, you can't
beat size (cu in in their case, sensors for the camera). What some,
like the LOL idiot don't realize is that sensor technology has not
fundamentally changed in 20 years, hence the limitations and the
reasons P&S's still suffer, even at low ISO with image quality
issues...Plus, as we've seen with the Sony NEX, there are inherent
cost-related limitations to close proximity lens- large sensor
compatibility that can only be overcome by spending money and charging
more money. A whole new means of lens design will be needed (and I
hope Nikon at least meets the challenge with larger sensors, the micro
4/3rds people did with theirs) when they stuff a FF sensor into a tiny
body (Leica did it) and it won't be cheap if people want the quality.
But, size reductions, even I believe in the pro end are inevitable.
Otherwise, video cameras threaten to fully displace still cameras for
professional use.