From: RichA on
I don't think the DSLR line in Hogan's graph should be narrowing that
much, people are still overwhelmingly buying Canon and Nikon and they
don't have mirror-less cameras, but it makes sense compacts are going
away and (yuck!) cellphone with cams are rapidly expanding sales.

http://www.bythom.com/
From: Bruce on
On Mon, 5 Apr 2010 18:47:56 -0700 (PDT), RichA <rander3127(a)gmail.com>
wrote:

>I don't think the DSLR line in Hogan's graph should be narrowing that
>much, people are still overwhelmingly buying Canon and Nikon and they
>don't have mirror-less cameras, but it makes sense compacts are going
>away and (yuck!) cellphone with cams are rapidly expanding sales.
>
>http://www.bythom.com/


Thom Hogan makes the cardinal error of confusing the effects of a
recession with a paradigm shift in camera buying habits. He was
highly credible as a technical expert on Nikon equipment, but he's
losing credibility now that success has gone to his head and he is
straying into areas that he knows nothing about. If he isn't careful,
he's in danger of becoming another Ken Rockwell.

The alleged "success" of Micro Four Thirds and other mirrorless
large-sensor cameras is a feature of the market in only one country,
and that is Japan. Sales of "mirrorless DSLRS" are currently as high
as 30% of the non P&S market. But that success is not replicated
elsewhere. In Europe, sales are a much lower proportion of the market
and in North America, they are well below 5%.

So unless you live in Japan, the mirrorless large-sensor camera is
still a fairly insignificant part of the market. Even if some growth
in North American sales is yet to come, it's far too soon to be
signalling the demise of the DSLR.

However, there is some truth in the idea that most DSLR buyers have no
need of a DSLR. But we didn't need Thom Hogan to tell us that; there
is a very long history of people buying cameras that are far better
than their need and/or ability would indicate.

From: Chris H on
In message <ngamr511hn1ekrfq62bnlsnjm2tgm8ea3r(a)4ax.com>, Outing Trolls
is FUN! <otif(a)trollouters.org> writes
>On Tue, 06 Apr 2010 12:14:27 +0100, Bruce <docnews2011(a)gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> there is a very long history of people buying cameras that are far
>> better than their need and/or ability would indicate.
>
>You have that bass-ackward, as usual. A person with talent can create award
>winners with any camera. ANY camera.

That is not true. Some very talented photographers who can see good
pictures (i.e. composition) may not be able to use the equipment to get
a good picture. You need the skill to be able to use the tools as well
as the creativity as a photographer.

It is possible to take pictures now that were just not possible in the
past.


--
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
\/\/\/\/\ Chris Hills Staffs England /\/\/\/\/
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/



From: Ofnuts on
On 06/04/2010 03:47, RichA wrote:
> I don't think the DSLR line in Hogan's graph should be narrowing that
> much, people are still overwhelmingly buying Canon and Nikon and they
> don't have mirror-less cameras, but it makes sense compacts are going
> away and (yuck!) cellphone with cams are rapidly expanding sales.
>
> http://www.bythom.com/

I don't agree with his vision... the market is split by sensor size:
full-frame, APS-C/four-thirds, P&S, phones. Of course the mirror will
disappear, but it's peripheral. Canon & Nikon will someday make
mirrorless bodies with APS-C sensors that will have all the
functionality of current APS-C DSLRs and use their current lenses, and
some later day do the same with FF bodies.

--
Bertrand
From: Chris H on
In message <4bbb42ed$0$30031$426a74cc(a)news.free.fr>, Ofnuts
<o.f.n.u.t.s(a)la.poste.net> writes
>On 06/04/2010 03:47, RichA wrote:
>> I don't think the DSLR line in Hogan's graph should be narrowing that
>> much, people are still overwhelmingly buying Canon and Nikon and they
>> don't have mirror-less cameras, but it makes sense compacts are going
>> away and (yuck!) cellphone with cams are rapidly expanding sales.
>>
>> http://www.bythom.com/
>
>I don't agree with his vision... the market is split by sensor size:
>full-frame, APS-C/four-thirds, P&S, phones.

I think the phones will replace the medium to low end P&S "all" the kids
(actually almost everyone, not just the kids) have phones with cameras
that are "good enough". Unless they are really into photography they
will be happy with a phone.

Those that want more will go DSLR or a Bridge camera. The DSLR
enthusiasts (as a back up) and minimalist photographers etc will go high
end P&S but this will be a comparatively small market.

>Of course the mirror will disappear, but it's peripheral. Canon & Nikon
>will someday make mirrorless bodies with APS-C sensors that will have
>all the functionality of current APS-C DSLRs and use their current
>lenses, and some later day do the same with FF bodies.

I agree... however by that time will the stills camera have been
replaced by the movie camera with interchangeable lenses? It is heading
that way now and the mirror is just "in the way"


--
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
\/\/\/\/\ Chris Hills Staffs England /\/\/\/\/
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/